Tuesday. 31.03.2020
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CORONAVIRUS

THL forecasts up to 3,000 coronavirus deaths in Finland

The assessment made by THL and the Universities of Turku and Tampere says 20-60% of the population will get coronavirus infection.
China coronavirus pandemic epidemic
China coronavirus pandemic epidemic
THL forecasts up to 3,000 coronavirus deaths in Finland

On Monday, Prime Minister Sanna Marin explained the government's measures against the coronavirus (koronavirus, in Finnish).

On Tuesday, a 14-page document prepared by the National Institute for Health and Welfare (THL) in cooperation with the Universities of Turku and Tampere was published. The study presents a forecast model with three potential epidemic scenarios: mild, moderate and severe.

  • In a mild scenario, 20% of the population, or over one million Finns, would be infected with Covid-19.
  • In the average scenario, 40% of the population would be infected, over 2.1 million Finns.
  • In a severe scenario, 60% of the population would be affected by the corona, which would mean more than 3.2 million Finns.

According to the model, there would be 1,080-8,100 intensive care patients in Finland and 540-3240 deaths, depending on the scenario. And the mortality rate estimated is based on 0.05-0.1 percent of the infected people. In the severe scenario, 3.2 million people would be infected and more than 3,000 people would lose their lives.

The elder, in danger

The Government's assessment showed that the risk of serious illness and death increases sharply in those over 70 years of age.

Major cases of serious illness and death have been reported worldwide in people over the age of 70 who already have some underlying disease, such as lung disease, diabetes, hypertension or cardiovascular disease.

The document also showed the Chinese and Italian mortality rates. In China, the mortality rate for coronavirus patients over 80 is 14.8% and in Italy 17.8%.

According to the estimation, the mortality rate among coronavirus in Wuhan, China, has been around 2%. Cases reported from outside Wuhan have had a significantly lower mortality rate (0.4%). 

If you want to read the full report click here.

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